When Will They Finish?

August 16, 2010

Hi there,

If you haven’t done it before, please check out the GPS  Photo Tracker that has been linked on the right of the page, before you read the blog posted below (from Thumper).  You can also click on this link if you like…

~Mom

[singlepic id=45 w=320 h=240 float=left]  If you have been looking at the “photo map,” you might have noticed that there’s a prediction
on when this epic adventure will end.

Currently, the prediction is that they’ll finish up by October 6th, which is about one and a half weeks later than their initial plans call for.  I wish I could tell you that it takes into account the elevation changes and weather and even how much moonlight there is to walk by; then it builds a model of how much Buckeye and Swift’s endurance has improved, how much weight they’ve lost, and the dwindling sunlight now that the days are getting shorter…

But actually, it’s much simpler than that. Buckeye and Swift began their journey on April 19th.  On August 7th (day 111), their trail stats page says that they have walked 1726.6 miles.  On their front page, they say that the Pacific Crest Trail is 2663 miles long, so now we have enough information to build a proportion.

day 111             day X
———-     =   ———
1726.6 miles       2663 miles

Remember that the way to solve this proportion is to multiple the diagonals and set them equal, so

day 111 * 2663 miles = day X * 1726.6 miles

or

day X = day 111 * 2663 miles / 1726.6 miles

When you do the arithmetic, you discover that our heroes will finish on day 172 of their
trip, which happens to be October 6th, 2010.

[singlepic id=46 w=320 h=240 float=right]Hmmm…  This method is pretty pessimistic, because it assumes that they have been traveling at a constant rate the
whole trek: about 15 miles a day.

When you look at the trail stats for the last two weeks, you will find that Buckeye and Swift have been going at about 20 miles a day, on average (but their average is increasing as they manage 30 mile days).  If they can keep up a 20-mile a day average pace for the rest of the trip, then they will finish on 22-Sep.

The big question is, will the mountains of Washington state slow them down, or will the excitement of being nearly finished give them the strength to race to the finish?

~Thumper